Report - Has Motorization in the U.S. Peaked?

In the first three parts in this series of reports, I examined the changes from 1984 to 2011 in the number of registered light-duty vehicles (Sivak, 2013a), and the corresponding changes in distance driven (Sivak, 2013b) and fuel consumed (Sivak, 2013c). The units of the analyses were both the absolute numbers and the rates per person, per driver, per household, and (where appropriate) per vehicle. The main finding of those three reports is that the respective rates all reached their maxima around 2004. I argued that, because the onsets of the reductions in these rates preceded the onset of the recession (in 2008), the reductions in these rates likely reflect fundamental, noneconomic changes in society (such as increased telecommuting, increased use of public transportation, increased urbanization of the population, and changes in the age composition of drivers). Therefore, these maxima have a reasonable chance of being long-term peaks as well. The present report provides a brief update on these measures through 2012. Read report.